Vitamin D math mistakes made 7 years ago – K Baggerly 2016-2017

12 minute video, Nov 2016 @ American Public Health Association

Keith Baggerly is a Biostatistician, tenured professor and son of Carole Baggerly
kabagg at mdanderson.org

Mistake #1: % of cadavers with poor bones with 20-30 ng of vitamin D

They computed the ratio of bad bones with 20-30 ng vs all cadavers, rather than just those with 20-30 ng
If they had used the correct denominator the result would have been 28-30 ng, not 20 ng

Mistake #2: Not having enough data to conclude that >4,000 IU is too much (i.e. harm)

Chart did not have any error bars

This next chart shows the tiny differences

Two more mistakes

3) Institute of Medicine used data only for bone health, but the rest of the body needs higher levels
4) incorrectly estimated dose needed to get 97.5 % of population to a vitamin D level

His previously published study of the problem
 Download the PDF from Vitamin D Life

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Sharing Scientific Data and Replicability, Keith Baggerly 45 minute video, March 2017

|Arthur M. Sackler Colloquia, Published on Mar 22, 2017
This talk was given by Keith Baggerly, MD Anderson Cancer Center as part of the National Academy of Sciences Arthur M. Sackler Colloquium on Reproducibility of Research: Issues and Proposed Remedies held in Washington, D.C. on March 8-10, 2017
Note: A Parathyroid Hormone analysis of 2016-2017 independently found that a vitamin D level of 31 ng is needed
Note: 97.5% of the population = 2 sigma of an ideal bell curve distribution (the actual distribution is a very distorted bell curve)

3,000 IU is needed to get 97.5% of the population to 30ng

Note: 3,000 IU daily ==> 42,000 IU every two weeks. which is very close to the 50,000 IU proposed by Vitamin D Life 3 years before
3,000 IU is 5X more than the 600 IU erroneous conclusion of the Institute of Medicine in 2010

Pregnant women in East Africa have vitamin D levels of about 60 ng

Yellow = pregnant women

Baggerly's are hoping to get signicant progress on correcting the error by the end of Sept 2017

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See also Vitamin D Life

• Vitamin D math mistake had been made, adults need at least 8000 IU – July 2017
• 1000 IU should be the new vitamin D RDA (if you think 20 ng is enough) - May 2017
• Vitamin D needs in 2004:1000 IU, 10 years later same author says 3,500 IU
• Review of vitamin D recommendations around the world – April 2017
  Often their recommendations just echo the US math mistakes
• Is 50 ng of vitamin D too high, just right, or not enough
• IoM again fails to look at interactions - Nov 2010
  many other mistakes were made, such as not looking at interaction of Vitamin D and Calcium
• Weak support of IoM position of Vitamin D – 2018
• Vitamin D RDA of 600 IU is not enough - global RCT meta-analysis March 2019
• IoM error: 8 percent, not just 1 percent, had bone loss when vitamin D higher than 20 ng 2011
  same conclusion as was made in 2016 by K, Baggerly on this page
  8%, not 1% of the people has >20 ng/ml had bone loss, so the 20 ng/ml voted level was incorrect

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Note: Even if you have a good blood level of vitamin D,
    poor genes, low Magnesium, low Omega-3, etc restrict how much vitamin D actually gets to your cells

Vitamin D Receptor 160 studies found incidence of 16 health problems increased by at least 3X (as of Aug 2017)
Genetics category listing contains the following

266 articles in the Genetics category

see also

• 384 articles in Vitamin D Receptor
• 140 articles in Vitamin D Binding Protein = GC
• 35 articles in CYP27B1
• Topical Vitamin D
• Nanoemulsion Vitamin D may be a substantially better form
• Getting Vitamin D into your body

Vitamin D blood test misses a lot

• Snapshot of the literature by Vitamin D Life as of early 2019
• Vitamin D from coming from tissues (vs blood) was speculated to be 50% in 2014, and by 2017 was speculated to be 90%
• Note: Good blood test results (> 40 ng) does not mean that a good amount of Vitamin D actually gets to cells
• A Vitamin D test in cells rather than blood was feasible (2017 personal communication)
•    Commercially available 2019
  • However test results would vary in each tissue due to multiple genes
• Good clues that Vitamin D is being restricted from getting to the cells
  1) A vitamin D-related health problem runs in the family
  • especially if it is one of 51+ diseases related to Vitamin D Receptor
  
  2) Slightly increasing Vitamin D show benefits (even if conventional Vitamin D test shows an increase)
  3) Vitamin D Receptor test (<$30) scores are difficult to understand in 2016
  • easier to understand the VDR 23andMe test results analyzed by FoundMyFitness in 2018
  
  4) Back Pain
  • probably want at least 2 clues before taking adding vitamin D, Omega-3, Magnesium, Resveratrol, etc
    • The founder of Vitamin D Life took action with clues #3&4

short URL = https://is.gd/VitDMath