How some cities ‘flattened the curve’ during the 1918 flu pandemic National Geographic - March 27, 2020
- “It’s the signature of a whole community,...”
- This week, the Water Research foundation sponsored a virtual research summit
- Being used (a bit) in Brazil, Australia, France, Spain and the United States
- “If we see a hot spot arising,” Dr. Xagoraraki said, “we can close down a particular area for a while, so you don’t kill the whole economy of a whole state.”
Wastewater could provide early, painless and localized data about the rise or fall of coronavirus levels.
- "When cities or states come out of lockdown, they could check the sewers to follow the virus trend. An increase would tell them that people were infecting each other. “Then you need to go back into quarantine,”
- Look at indiviudal manholes...“If we see a hot spot arising,” Dr. Xagoraraki said, “we can close down a particular area for a while, so you don’t kill the whole economy of a whole state.”
We fear that the lesson has not been learned.
Many countries and US states are considering stopping the lockdown too early
Lockdowns in 1918 did not have to deal with people driving and flying long distances as they do in 2020
Note - There may be a technological breakthrough to determine when to unlock
Test the sewage.
The virus is shed in your poop.
And, the virus is detected in poop even before it can be detected in the throat.
When the sewage tests clear for the virus you are sure that everyone in the catchment area (1,000,000?) no longer have the virus
Then the area can be safely unlocked
- Can probably detect when COVID-19 has gone away by testing the waste-water in the region Wired April 7
- Temporal detection and phylogenetic assessment of SARS-CoV-2 in municipal wastewater April 20 preprint
- Metropolitan Wastewater Analysis for COVID-19 Epidemiological Surveillance April 27 preprint
- Virus detected in wastewater BEFORE it was detected in humans - in Spain
Note: In 1918 many doctors recommended taking 24 tablets of the new wonderdrug - Aspirin.
reference: The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History - John Berry
In 2020 we are aware that taking NSAIDS such as Aspirin increases the virulence of a virus, so should not be taken